Houston, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

543
FXUS64 KHGX 191922
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
222 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

- Typical summer conditions to celebrate the summer solstice.
  Though unusual weather threats aren`t around, typical summer
  does still mean being ready to stay ahead of triple-digit heat
  index values and to be ready to react if you win the
  thunderstorm lottery of the day.
- The summery weather also means the beaches beckon. On top of the
  previous point, beachgoers will want to see what risks the
  waters pose from local beach patrol, and be alert to the
  potential for rip currents in the Gulf.
- A slight shift in the upper air pattern could make for more
  coverage of afternoon storms early next week compared to what
  we`re seeing late this week. It won`t be a huge change, but
  something to watch for in the days to come.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

It`s your typical hot, humid summer day, marred here and there
with some showers and thunderstorms, but subsidence from the
subtropical ridge is just strong enough to largely keep afternoon
convection at bay. The most activity this afternoon really is out
over the waters of the Gulf, while we`re seeing no more than
speckles of tiny showers over Southeast Texas.

Looking forward, I don`t really see that changing much for the
next couple days. Tomorrow looks to me very much like a repeat of
today. Some pre-dawn stratus and patchy fog, primarily farther
inland, while showers/storms are over the Gulf. Through the
morning, we see some coastal showers and the development of
cumulus across the area while we warm up to the lower 90s and 100+
heat index values. Showers and storms, generally isolated, should
gradually spread inland along the seabreeze front. Much like
today, I think we`ll struggle to get much of anything, but a few
lucky? unlucky? Depends on your perspective, I suppose - folks get
a quick hitter of rain and maybe a lightning strike or two.

Tomorrow looks even more like a win for subsidence as the peak of
the subtropical ridge drifts across the region and off to the Deep
South, strengthening slightly as it does so. Because of that, I`ve
got PoPs that are higher than zero, but not high enough to merit
even a description of "slight chance". I think we`ll struggle to
get much of anything to pop up on Saturday. We should still see
plenty of friendly afternoon cumulus to keep temps from rising too
much, but I could see them pushing a bit closer to the mid-90s.
Fortunately, this should also help afternoon dewpoints mix out
pretty well, so peak heat index values might even nudge down
slightly, but still around/just above 100.

Once the peak of the ridge aloft moves farther east of us, we`re
going to see a change in the pattern. That ridging will park over
the Eastern US and amplify, while troughing digs in over the
western US. In response, we should see gradually afternoon
convection gradually become more effective as we head into next
week, with greater coverage in storms by the middle of the week.
Ultimately...this is probably going to be not super noticeable to
most folks unless you are an absolute weather sicko (like me!).
Those watching closely will definitely see the trend of increasing
coverage of daily convection, but there`s no indication in any of
the ensemble systems that this will rise up out of the realm of
typical summer behavior.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Today`s SHRA/TSRA activity struggling to get going, so have pulled
mentions from the TAF, going solely with VFR and southerly winds
around 10 kts. -SHRA may still happen as there are an isolated
smattering of tiny showers around the area currently, but
potential too low to be explicitly stated in a TAF.

Tonight, largely a persistence forecast. Best potential for MVFR
conditions and potentially even some brief stints in IFR are up
north at CLL. Elsewhere, plenty of FEW-SCT MVFR decks, but holding
off any any CIGs for now. PROB30s for -SHRA/TSRA again tomorrow
afternoon, as isolated activity expected again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

South and southeast winds in the 10 to 15 knot range, occasionally
slightly above 15 knots, should generally prevail through the
weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain a
daily possibility.

At the coast, beach patrols flying yellow on the island today so
no rip current statement at the moment. However, potential for
rips remains high into the weekend, so that may be needed in the
future. Tide levels are above astronomical norms due to the
persistent onshore flow. Over the next several days, astronomical
levels will be rising, so high tides will also rise accordingly.
Should still be below any sort of advisory threshold, but will be
creeping closer to 3 feet above MLLW in the days to come.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  92  75  92 /  20  20   0  10
Houston (IAH)  78  92  78  93 /  10  30   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  82  89  81  89 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs